2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast Offers Market Predictions for Trendsetter State

Image by Texas A&M University Texas Real Estate Research Center

In our January 17, 2024 post, we offered five predictions for the national commercial real estate market in 2024. In this post, we zero in on expected real estate trends in our home state of Texas. For this, we turn to the Texas A&M Texas Real Estate Research Center, the nation’s largest publicly funded organization devoted to real estate research. On January 4, the Center published its 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast, which predicts big-picture trends for 2024 in various Texas real estate markets, including single-family housing, multifamily housing, office space, retail, and industrial. As the report notes, “Texas is a real estate trendsetter when it comes to residential, commercial, and land markets in the U.S.” So the report’s findings can potentially shed light on expected trends nationwide, as well as statewide. Below are some highlights from the report.

Single-Family Housing

  • Single family home sales are expected to remain flat relative to 2023.

  • Average home prices will likely remain flat or may dip slightly.

Multifamily Housing

  • Apartment deliveries are expected to dip from 2023 levels.

  • Multifamily rents are expected to grow 2.5% over the previous year in the largest metro markets.

Office Space

  • Office space inventory is expected to be at or above the previous year.

  • Substantially more office space will be given up than leased.

Retail

  • Statewide retail inventory is expected to remain at 2023 levels.

  • Retail rents are forecasted to end 2024 slightly above their 2023 year end levels, with 2% growth possible.

Industrial

  • Industrial deliveries are expected to remain relatively strong, with total statewide inventory potentially increasing by 1.5% to 3% before year end.

  • Statewide industrial rents are likely to continue increasing in 2024 at a rate of 2% to 4%, slightly below 2023’s pace.

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